Why the Inclusion of Prabowo in Jokowi's Cabinet Makes Sense
Despite media statements describing President Widodo’s move to include the Gerindra Party in the cabinet as “shocking” or as “a big gamble” with appointing Gerindra Chairman Prabowo Subianto as his defence minister, the real surprise would be if Gerindra was not in the cabinet.
History and political motivations can reveal a lot. Prabowo’s relationship with PDIP Chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri’s family dates back at least to the 1990s. Prabowo also maintained a close relationship with Megawati’s late husband and politician, Taufiq Kiemas, even when Prabowo was removed from his position as chief of the Army's Strategic Reserves Command (Kostrad) for allegedly repositioning troops to the presidential palace without authorization just days after Habibie replaced President Soeharto in 1998.
The relationship between Prabowo and Megawati has also been close over the years. They ran unsuccessfully on a PDIP-Gerindra presidential ticket in 2009 with Megawati as the presidential candidate under a political agreement. Under the agreement, Gerindra would support Megawati for president in 2009 and PDIP would support Prabowo in 2014. Megawati later decided instead to back Widodo in 2014, which did create a rift for a short period, but Prabowo and Gerindra moved on from that early in Widodo’s first term.
We should also remember that Prabowo was largely responsible for Widodo’s rise to national politics when the PDIP candidate was paired with Gerindra’s Basuki Purnama (Ahok) in 2012. Gerindra provided campaign strategies and poured large sums of money into the campaign.
Some critics believe that Widodo was foolish to appoint Prabowo as defence minister as the former general would likely attempt to undermine the president, however this misses the point, there are no real political enemies in Indonesia (the Mega-SBY feud is more personal in nature). Prabowo, Widodo and Megawati are in fact now political partners not competitors.
They are partners for several reasons:
The Gerindra and PDIP parties have similar, although weak, “ideologies”. It’s nearly impossible to distinguish their platforms when you break them down.
PDIP has initiated moves to revise the Constitution to reinstate the State Policy Guidelines (GBHN), 5-year policy guide for the nation, which could possibly open the door to other amendments to make the Upper House (MPR) as the highest institution in the land and as a result, bring a return to New Order style indirect elections where the MPR choses the president, not the voters. Prabowo has stated that he would also support the GBHN amendment. PDIP will need Gerindra’s support in the three Houses (MPR, DPR, DPD) to meet the stringent requirements to amend the Constitution. (Golkar, Nasdem are likely to support it as well).
Widodo has learned in his first term that he cannot fully rely on or expect loyalty from PDIP in parliament and for his own policies. He struggled with PDIP in his first two years in office particularly with policies involving foreign investment and state-owned enterprises. Although Gerindra was the opposition leader during the president’s first term, they often cooperated with the government in the House. Widodo still does not have enough influence among his coalition to secure his political policies in parliament and Gerindra was the only non-coalition party that could provide that.
As PDIP Chairwoman Megawati begins to make plans for the next “Soekarno generation” to lead the party and perhaps the country, she is positioning her daughter Puan Maharani as next in line. Puan was recently appointed as the speaker of the Upper House and has eyes on higher office. A PDIP-Gerindra alliance could strengthen her political future.
Gerindra has big aspirations for the next election in 2024 and it needed to get out of the opposition role and into in the government to raise its profile and use it as a platform. This is not the first time Gerindra has been offered positions in the cabinet. Previous attempts by Widodo to include Gerindra in a cabinet reshuffle in his first term failed as Gerindra’s demands where too high.
Widodo’s eldest son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka (32), is hoping to run for mayor of Solo with PDIP support. Gerindra, has shown interest in pairing Gibran with the grandson of President Soekarno, Paundrakama Sukaputra (40) as a joint PDIP-Gerindra ticket in the 2020 local elections. This is just one example of how both parties might work together in the coming elections. Although Solo is a small town in Central Java, the position would be very symbolic as Widodo served seven years as mayor in Solo and the ticket would be viewed as a political launching ground for both men and potential future dynasties.