That’s because despite having ambitions for higher office, Anies is facing a political dead end as Jakarta governor when his first term ends in 2022. Something that would drastically reduce his popularity and electability since he would lack a platform to garner public exposure during the run up to the presidential election in 2024.

As I wrote in an article and explained in a podcast episode last year, Anies is unable to run for a second term due to the 2016 Election Law, which cancelled the 2022 and 2023 regional elections in a move to consolidate elections so that presidential, legislative, regional elections occur every five years rather than scattered across different years. The main reasons for the consolidation was to reduce election costs, provide political stability and increase voter participation. As a result, Anies along with 271 local leaders (including West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil), will be replaced with interim officials when their first term comes to an end. The minister of home affairs will appoint their replacements who will then go on to fill the seats until elections in 2024.

Now, Anies may have new hope. In a recent dramatic shift, several political factions in parliament (DPR) have initiated changes to the Election Draft Bill that would reinstate the 2022 and 2023 elections and push the consolidation plan back from 2024 to 2027. Many members of Golkar, Democrats, and NasDem factions now say that the consolidation is being rushed and that there will be too many interim local leaders appointed from 2022-2024, at a time when the country is still recovering from the pandemic. 

While that’s their official line, they also see the cancelled elections as a lost opportunity to better position themselves before the 2024 presidential elections particularly when it comes to the Jakarta and West Java races. The Democrats, for example, desperately need a public position for their young chairman, Agus Yudhoyono, who had an unsuccessful bid for the Jakarta governorship in 2017 and does not hold a high profile position except within his own party. Privately, some members of these factions are concerned that PDIP and Widodo will appoint political allies as interim leaders to better position the party for the gubernatorial and presidential elections in 2024.

PDIP, PAN, PKB said they oppose the election change and want to keep the Election Law as is when it comes to the consolidation schedule saying that there is no urgency for the change. PKS has mixed stances but has hinted that they may support reinstating the elections particularly as they are close to Anies and could benefit if he was allowed to run for a second term. Gerindra has yet to take a stance but one of its high profile members outside of DPR has.