Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan came into office in October 2017 after winning a divisive gubernatorial election which led to the spectacular downfall of incumbent governor Basuki Purnama (Ahok). Anies, the grandson of an independence fighter and Indonesian national hero, is known to be ambitious. Filling the Governor’s seat is widely seen as a move to elevate his profile and be a stepping stone for a presidential bid in 2024. President Joko Widodo’s (Jokowi) second term will end then and he is unable to run for a third term under the current law. Jokowi also used the governor’s seat to propel himself into the 2014 presidential race after just two years in office.

Anies is now halfway through his first five year term and has been adding more high-profile visits in an attempt to better positioned himself for a presidential bid in 2024. In fact, according to several very early surveys, Anies places high on the list when it comes to name recognition as a presidential candidate and many news outlets place him as a top contender despite having a lacklustre performance as governor.

Although Anies may have high name recognition, ambitions for the presidency will likely be difficult to fulfil. His controversial divisive campaign, which led to victory in 2017, will also come back to haunt him. 

Anies’ term will conclude in 2022 and despite only serving one term as governor, he will not be allowed to run for re-election when that term ends. In fact, there won’t be a gubernational election at all in Jakarta in 2022 according to a 2016 law on local elections.

It will instead be pushed to 2024 as part of the government’s effort to transition all elections in the country to be conducted concurrently (on the same day) rather than being scattered across different years. Rather than having an election in 2022, the Minister of Home Affairs will appoint an interim governor to fill the almost two year gap between elections. Tito Karnavian is the current Minister of Home Affairs and a close ally of Jokowi. Tito himself is said to have his own presidential ambitions.

As of October 2022, Anies will lose his strategic position, power as governor and his public exposure will be drastically reduced at an important period two years before the election, keeping him out of the public’s eye at a crucial period. This is not the first time that a potential candidate has been “neutralized”. The former TNI Commander General Gatot Nurmantyo and potential Jokowi rival, experienced a similar situation in the run up to the 2019 presidential election when the president made the pre-emptive move to replace Gatot with General Hadi Tjahjanto as TNI chief in December 2017, even though he was only scheduled to retire in mid 2018. This left Gatot with little influence or power to the run up to the presidential election in 2019. He eventually did not run and was barely visible during the election.

Identity politics played a major role in Anies’ campaign in the 2017 Jakarta election that brought down Ahok, Jokowi’s former deputy governor, friend and staunch ally. In fact, Ahok’s downfall and the use of identity politics sent shock waves through the presidential palace and Jokowi himself, which led the president to strengthen his Islamic credentials, as well as isolate or side-line his opponents and reset his political strategies. 

Jokowi will use his political power and influence to ensure that Anies will be blocked going forward the new interim governor will be a key ally and could even be his or PDIP’s favoured gubernatorial candidate in 2024 or perhaps a presidential candidate to continue his national polices beyond 2024. Jokowi won’t forget what happened in the 2017 Jakarta election. 

Shawn Corrigan is the host and producer of Indonesia In-depth, Indonesia’s leading business, political and culture podcast based in Jakarta. He has spent more than a decade in Indonesia working as a political risk consultant and established Indonesia In-depth in 2017. He speaks English and Indonesian. In addition to the podcast, Indonesia In-depth provides professionals with content services, from podcasts, audio documentaries to social media content. 

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