President Jokowi has been in office since 2014 and was just inaugurated for a second term last October. He’s a member of the PDIP party, but is not as influential in the party as some might expect. In fact, part of his first term was spent convincing his own party on his policies and direction for the country. Will this be the case in his second term and what the driving the force inside PDIP? 

Do Jokowi and Megawati have the same stances?

 Mega is much more ideological than Jokowi

• Megawati is of course the leader of the Soekarno dynasty and is the head of the State Pancasila working unit (UKP). She is a believer of Marhaenism, a socialistic political ideology created by her father Soekarno, where the government plays a big role in society, with the state plays a key role in the economy, for example. The history of the ideology has had a big impact on her and she often reminisces about the conversations she had about Marhaenism with her father when she was a child.

• Jokowi however, is far less ideological. He has a business mindset and is focused on economic outcomes. He wants and needs to drive economic growth. But, democracies can be messy, they can be inefficient and this has become an issue for him as the same forces that brought him into office, democracy and things like dissent and regional autonomy, are beginning to be viewed as a hinderance to implementing his polices, attracting investment and boosting economic growth. Just because he announces new polices and stimulus packages, it doesn’t mean they are implemented on the ground by bureaucrats and regional governments.

Do Megawati and Jokowi agree on the direction of policies for the country?

Sometimes, but often no. For example:

• Megawati supports a return to the old system of government where the central government plays a big role and sets policy direction for local governments. She also has been a long-time supporter of amending the constitution and bringing back the GBHN, the State Policy Guidelines. GBHN is a national long term, fundamental planning mechanism which would provide policy continuity from president to president with strong oversight from the Upper House (MPR). It could eventually also end direct elections, as this policy would place the MPR, as the highest governing institution in the land, so high, that it would be above the president. This was how the system worked during the New Order during the Soeharto era up until 2004.

• Jokowi in essence supports a long-term planning mechanism but currently does not support the GBHN, citing the fact that it would weaken the presidency by having the legislative branch set the national policy direction instead of the executive branch and at the same time allow the return of indirect elections where the MPR would select the president. Direct elections is the exact reason why Jokowi was elected to begin with. It gives grassroots candidate leverage against the party when they want to run.

So what to watch going forward?

• Well, on the instructions of Megawati, Senior PDIP members in parliament say that they are prepared to push the GBHN to become Jokowi’s presidential legacy and are already positioning themselves in parliament for just that. Although there is still almost five years before the next presidential election, the process to amend the constitution will take time, so initial steps in parliament may begin even as early as this year.

• So there appears to be a major disconnect between Megawati and Jokowi on the GBHN issue. In a way, they both sort of agree on the need for long term, multiple decade, top-down planning from the central government, which they hope can provide more discipline programs, development and streamline implementation of policies. However, Jokowi sort of wants the best of both worlds, the top-down planning and direction, but yet retain direct elections which would allow individuals other than political elites to be voted into office, just like how he became president.

• The question is, can Jokowi prevent Megawati and PDIP from pushing through the constitutional amendments? Well, it doesn’t seem so as very senior members of PDIP have said that the final decision is in the hands of the MPR, not the president’s and, this is an opportunity for PDIP to better position themselves for the 2024 election. So PDIP will take the initiative on the move to amend the constitution and we’ll have to wait and see how civil society groups react once deliberations begin.

Episode Description

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