Minister of Social Affairs Khofifah Parawansa resignation could open the door to a larger cabinet reshuffle, something Jokowi wants to avoid at this moment.

Mrs. Khofifah has declared her candidacy for governor of East Java and has submitted her resignation letter to the president but is awaiting the East Java Election Commission to officially accept her application. The election itself will be held 27 June 2018.

Her departure from the cabinet would pose a dilemma for Jokowi for the following reasons:

1.    Replacing Khofifah would open the door for a full cabinet reconfiguration for some parties, such as Golkar, attempting to gain more seats. This would lead to other parties such as PDIP to do the same.

2.    Any such reconfiguration would require intense lobbying, time and could possibly create friction between the government coalition members.

3.    A cabinet reconfiguration at this point in Jokowi’s term could be problematic with the 2018 regional elections this June and the 2019 National elections 14 months away. The president has been working hard to strengthen his coalition and hopes to avoid any disruption to the cabinet as he prepares to run for his second term.

4.    According to the Law on State Ministries, appointing and dismissing cabinet ministers is the prerogative of the president and Mrs. Khofifah is not required to resign while she runs for governor of East Java.

5.    Mrs. Khofifah is also important due to her Javanese background and from a key province in terms of population and voter base, East Java. In addition to that, she a senior member of the influential Islamic organization Nahdlatul Ulama (NU).

 There are two potential scenarios as to how Jokowi might address the Khofifah dilemma:

1. Jokowi could refuse to accept Khofifah’s resignation letter and instead place her on administrative leave as she campaigns and appoints an interim minister for social affairs. If she looses the election in June, she could return to her position. If she is in fact elected as governor of East Java, the president could use her as a strategic campaigner for his 2019 reelection bid in a region that is one of the key battleground provinces. It might be possible to keep the interim minister through 2019 and thereby avoiding a full cabinet reshuffle.

2. If calls by coalition parties to replace Khofifah become too strong to ignore, Jokowi could be forced to fully replace her and possibly reconfigure his cabinet to accommodate the political interests. This could weaken both Jokowi and the cabinet’s performance overall as a result of ministers implementing new policies and take time and energy from the president.

Jokowi currently has Mrs. Khofifah’s resignation letter sitting on his desk. His government coalition partners are waiting to see how he responds.